Technical analysis and central bank intervention

This paper extends genetic programming techniques to show that US foreign exchange intervention information improves technical trading rules' profitability for two of four exchange rates over part of the out-of-sample period. Rules trade contrary to intervention and are unusually profitable on days prior to intervention, indicating that intervention is intended to halt predictable trends. Intervention seems to be more successful in checking such trends in the out-of-sample (1981–98) period than in the in-sample (1975–80) period. Any improvement in performance results from more precise estimation of the relationship between current and past exchange rates, rather than from information about contemporaneous intervention.     

责任会计在商业银行中的应用研究

本文认为,我国商业银行应推行责任会计,将商业银行内部划分为若干责任中心,把商业银行制定的预算、目标和任务按部门进行分解,形成各责任中心的预算、目标和任务,通过分部门核算的方式对各责任中心的目标预算执行情况进行控制,并对执行结果进行考核。使会计活动从记录、反映和监督商业银行的财务活动向为商业银行管理服务拓展,充分发挥预算、控制、考核、分析和经营决策的作用,从而保证商业银行经营管理目标的实现。     

中资银行合规管理与银行再造

近年来,中资银行正在加快银行改革,积极推行经营理念、组织架构、业务流程等方面的银行再造运动,但合规管理却一直不是中资银行重点关注的领域,合规失效问题给银行再造带来了阻碍。培育良好合规文化、建立健全合规管理机制,有效发挥合规管理的作用,已然成为中资银行深入推进银行再造的不二选择。     

金融工程在现代银行风险管理体系构建中的应用

文章对金融工程与风险管理作简要介绍,并阐述金融工程在各项风险管理中的应用,最后针对我国银行应用金融工程管理风险中存在的问题提出建议,指出应构建现代银行风险管理体系。     

国有商业银行金融风险分析及监管

本文从国有商业银行金融风险的特点出发，通过对我国国有商业银行金融风险的表现和我国国有商业银行金融风险成因的分析，提出了国有商业银行金融风险防范和监管的主要思路。     

国有银行产权改革与效率:国外经验研究及启示

关于国有银行产权改革与效率的关系,国外进行了大量的实证研究,得出了一些在国外被普遍接受的结论.本文以其中代表性的著作Clarke、Cull和Shirley(2005)为切入点,通过对他们提出的三个命题的辩证分析(包括证真和证伪),得出对我国国有银行产权改革有益的启示.基本观点是:(1)战略投资者不等于外国投资者;(2)"外资换效率"的改革模式需要审慎对待;(3)引进国内资本是国有银行改革的必然方向;(4)完善的资本市场是国有银行改革的必要条件.同时,我们也提出了当前国有银行产权改革应注意的几点问题.     

现代信用风险模型特征比较研究

本文对现今国际上信用风险管理实践中应用最为广泛的KMV,GrcditMetrics,CreditRisk ,CreditPortfolio View四个模型进行了比较,从反映原理概念,结构角度研究了各模型的特征,介绍了实证效果,以期为我国商业银行信用风险模型的构建提供借鉴与参考.     

Is a Conservative Central Banker a (Perfect) Substitute for Wage Coordination?

In a monetary union, macroeconomic policies are strongly associated with externalities that imply the need for coordination. However, if coordination is not complete, it might be unable to cope with the externalities. This paper investigates different solutions for internalizing policy externalities. In particular, we compare wage coordination to the conservative central banker solution, which the recent literature has found able to impose wage moderation on labor unions. We also discuss some issues related to labor flexibility reforms as a solution for the unemployment problem.     

An empirical procedure to evaluate monetary management under exogenous changes in the money supply

This article proposes an empirical procedure to evaluate central banks’ monetary management in a presence of exogenous changes in the money supply. Monetary shocks deviate the market interest rate from the target, and the monetary authority decides its optimal intervention in the money market, bearing in mind the benefits and costs of re-establishing its target interest rate. According to monetary management theory, typically a central bank will allow for variation in the interest rate within a range around the target interest rate, thereby intervening in the money market when the interest rate trends toward a point outside that range. In this context, we develop an empirical strategy to analyse central bank’s reactions to exogenous money changes by making a statistical comparison of the actual and the estimated intraday shift in the money supply. We also employ our method to test the reactions of the Brazilian Central Bank to liquidity shifts caused by changes in the Treasury Single Account (TSA) balance. Using different metrics of analysis, the applications of our procedure confirms the predictions of the optimal monetary management theory.     

基于流动性过剩的中小企业融资分析

以商业银行流动性过剩为背景,对我国中小企业融资难问题进行分析.认为除信息不对称外,国有商业银行对中小企业信贷动力不足是导致我国中小企业融资难的又一重要原因.为此提出通过再造银行体系、重塑国有商业银行经营目标及完善内部激励制度来健全对中小企业信贷的动力机制.